New Technologies Nearing Flash Point
This month I will highlight two technologies we’ve been covering over the years that are close to reaching flash point.
How long does it take to reach flash point? The older the technology, the longer it took. Radio took 30 years and television took 13 years, but the Web took only four years, once there was a graphic user interface.
In 1994, I started speaking and writing about a technology that would change the way we use and pay for telephones. No, I’m not talking about cell phones or wireless phones; they were already well in use at that point in time.
I was talking about voice over Internet protocol, or VoIP, a transformative technology that will redefine the phone and the way people use it. VoIP telephone and fax combine the capabilities of the computer, the telephone, the fax and digital networks, including the Internet.
VoIP calls are sent as packets of digital data over data networks, as a replacement to the switched circuit networks used by the telephone companies. With this technology, anyone could make long distance calls with little or no cost. In addition, because the phones are digital and work with computer systems, new functionality can be added quickly, greatly increasing communication, collaboration and innovation.
AT&T, Cox Communications, Qwest and Time Warner have seen the handwriting on the wall and have announced plans for VoIP service. Expect IP telephone and our current public switched telephone network to be increasingly integrated over time.
The technology is known as RFID, radio frequency identification. It is sometimes referred to as a “tag,” and it employs miniature circuitry that includes an antenna and an identification code. Tags can be made so small and durable that they can be embedded into just about anything and can be used to both locate and provide information about the object to which they are attached.
Today, in the United States alone, ten million motorists already use a small E-Zpass tag attached to their windshields, allowing them to drive through toll boots without stopping, paying electronically. An additional six million people use Speedpass keychain, based on the same wireless technology, to quickly pay for gasoline at the pump. The U.S. military made extensive and highly successful use of tracking tags to speed logistics during the war in Iraq.
A tag can contain information about a product, where it was manufactured, its shipping history, and the date and time it went through a store’s checkout. The uses are almost unlimited.
For example, tags are embedded on marathon runners’ shoes to record their race times; sales people can use a hand-held scanner to get information from a tagged item and tell customers the designer and fabric used; tag readers in dressing rooms track what items people try on and are linked to a flat panel display that shows alternative, matching items or accessories.
Keeping Track of You?
Recently, RFID has raised concerns that it could be used to keep track of the behaviors of consumers and that retailers could use this information without your knowledge.
However, the benefits of RFID technology on the supply chain alone are so great that industry leaders are working together to establish guidelines designed to eliminate those concerns and gain the trust of the public. For example, retailers will most likely install a sensor at checkout that will disable the tag after a purchase.
Tracking Flash Points
From an investment standpoint, it is a good idea to keep track of technologies nearing flash point because when they reach it, they take off.
Daniel Burrus, one of the world's leading technology forecasters, business strategists, and author of six books
Copyright 2004 Author retains copyright. All Rights Reserved.
