The “Big Deal” Phase
Today, it’s hard to avoid coming into contact with multiple computers on a daily basis. Once you realize that a computer doesn’t have to have a screen in order to be a computer, you can find them almost everywhere. Our cars have them, our new ovens have them, stop-and-go lights have them, phones have them – the list is quite amazing.
A traditional way to measure the power and capabilities of a computer is to look at the central processing chip that is at the heart of the computer’s nervous system. It took 20 years to go from a five-megahertz chip to a 500-megahertz chip. Twenty years! How long did it take to go from a 500-megahertz chip to a one-gigahertz chip? Eight months! And that was several years ago. Some of today’s laptops have three gigahertz chips powering them.
Moore’s Law states that processing power doubles every 18 months. Over the past two decades, this law has proven to be fairly accurate and I have used it and other laws I have created dealing with related areas, such as bandwidth and storage, as an accurate window to the future of computer power and capabilities.
In the beginning of a doubling, nothing dramatic happens – no big deal. I would say that the 1980s and 1990s represented the beginning of the doubling of computer power and capabilities – no big deal.
Today Is Not Like Yesterday
At this point in the evolution of processing power, it is important to understand that we have just entered the “Big Deal” Phase. Processors are now very powerful, the equivalent of a multimillion-dollar supercomputer a little over a decade ago, and the next doubling will give us even more amazing new capabilities.
For example, voice recognition technology, used by many cell phone companies, allows a customer to use his or her voice instead of the keypad to dial numbers. Many large companies use industrial-strength voice recognition technology in their call centers to route customer calls to the correct location.
Today’s commercially available voice recognition systems, such as IBM’s “Via Voice” and Dragon System’s “Naturally Speaking,” do a very good job of letting you talk into your computer and having your words automatically typed into Word document. I have a friend who has written three books by dictating to his laptop.
For some time now, computer operating systems have allowed you to provide commands by talking to your computer. Why do so few people use voice recognition?
Today’s commercially available systems, like the ones mentioned above, have a 2% error rate. If you take the time to train the computer, usually by reading a chapter of a book into the system, they work quite well. The problem, however, is that most people don’t take the time to train their computer and it therefore doesn’t work well. In addition, the 2% error rate means that you still have to check your work and make corrections. The next doubling will change that, bringing this technology to the mainstream.
Language translation systems are another great example, and after the next doubling expect to see many new and highly useful products that will allow you to quickly and accurately translate both written and spoken words. As the globalization trend continues, this will be an invaluable and welcome tool.
For the past year I have been using both a 2D- and 3D- browser to surf the Web. In order to get a really great 3D experience, you need both bandwidth and processing power. The next doubling, along with the rapid spread of broadband connections, will make the 3D Web a mainstream experience.
The real world is full of dimension and color, but most of our computer experiences have been like looking at a piece of paper on a screen. During this next doubling and beyond, we will begin to see the on-line and off-line world of computers come alive with dimension and color.
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Daniel Burrus, one of the world's leading technology forecasters, business strategists, and author of six books
Copyright 2004 Author retains copyright. All Rights Reserved.
