Jim's Predictions for 2008
Here are the Small Business Advocate Crystal Ball Predictions for 2008.
Prediction: There will not be a recession in the U.S that begins in 2008.
Prediction: If there is a recession, it began in Q4 '07 and will be over by Q1 '08. But we actually won't know any of that until May, after it's over.
Prediction: The U.S. economy will continue to absorb the effects of the '07 credit meltdown, but only through Q2, followed by a second half GDP growth rate of at least 3%.
Prediction: The U.S. economy will continue to produce new jobs, but the annual number will be below 1 million.
Prediction: Unemployment will rise but will stay below 5% for the year, primarily due to millions of job openings that currently aren't being filled.
Prediction: For the second consecutive year, finding qualified people to perform 21st century assignments will continue to be the single greatest challenge reported by small business owners.
Prediction: Small business will continue as the job-creation leader but in '08 will outpace big business by 4 jobs to 1.
Prediction: The technology sector will continue to be strong in '08 as a result of businesses having to increase automation because they can't find enough employees to do the work.
Prediction: Inflation will be higher than the Fed would like, but the Core Inflation Rate will average no more than 3%.
Prediction: The Fed will ease interest rates in '08, but the total reduction will be no more than 1.25% for the year, resulting in a 3% Fed Funds Rate at year-end.
Prediction: The so-called global credit crisis will not result in less credit available to small businesses in 2008.
Prediction: Oil prices above $100 per barrel will not persist; but due to increased global demand, reduced supply and speculation created by continued unrest in the Middle East, crude oil will average above $85 per barrel, with the price of regular gas averaging above $2.75 per gallon.
Prediction: Nationally, housing sales and prices will stabilize and trend upward by year-end.
Prediction: There will not be a national crisis of mortgage foreclosures because most homeowners have jobs, making a work-out more attractive to mortgagees than the very expensive process of foreclosure.
Prediction: Iraq will continue to become stable and grow as a nation to the point that it will be virtually a non-issue in the '08 presidential election.
Prediction: The greatest foreign policy issue in the presidential election will be the growing negative influence of Russia.
Prediction: Mike Huckabee's name will be somewhere on the '08 Republican presidential ticket.
Prediction: New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will be the '08 Democrat nominee for Vice President.
Write this on a rock... As you consider these predictions, remember that my six year record is 72% accuracy.
Jim Blasingame, Small Business Expert and host of The Small Business Advocate Show
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